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Why the Interest Rate of US Treasury Notes Matters

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Why the Interest Rate of US Treasury Notes Matters

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記事の概要

今回取りあげる VOA Learning Englishに掲載された記事は、 米国債の金利が重要な理由についての話題です。
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The U.S. government needs money to operate.

A lot of that money comes from taxes. However, much of the money the U.S. government uses to pay its costs comes from borrowing in the form of U.S. Treasury securities.

Investors, who believe the U.S. government will be able to pay them back, agree to loan the government money for a period of time. They receive interest payments regularly or in a way set by the Treasury.

The difference between the loan amount and the investment return is called the yield.

In past years, the interest rate on the U.S. government 10-year note was low. For example, when the COVID-19 pandemic started, the interest rate for a 10-year government debt security was less than one percent. If you loaned the U.S. government $100, you would receive about one dollar a year in interest until the note “matures,” or is paid back.

Now, however, the yield has jumped to about five percent for a 10-year note. A note is a debt security with a term of between two and 10 years. That means investors who agree to lend money to the U.S. government for a period of 10 years will earn about a five percent return each year.

That sounds good for investors. But everyone is not happy about it.

The reason is that many other interest rates are tied to the U.S. rate for the 10-year note.

In a recent report, the Associated Press called the 10-year note “the centerpiece of the global financial system.”

Many mortgage rates, the interest rates people pay for their home loans, are connected to the 10-year note. As a result, borrowing money becomes more costly. Over the life of a 30-year home mortgage agreement, a homeowner could pay hundreds of thousands of dollars more in interest than just two or three years ago.

In addition, the high rates on the 10-year note make it harder for some new businesses to grow. A young business often does not make money. But if it wants to hire new people or create a new product, it will often take out a loan from a bank or agree to pay investors interest. Since the financial crisis of 2008, the cost of these loans has mainly been very low – only a little higher than zero percent interest.

The low rates permitted many companies to borrow money at a low cost. Many of the world’s economies that were struggling recovered because of the low rates. Individual investors bought stocks because they did not see a large cost to borrow money. They did not see U.S. Treasury securities as a good investment because their interest rates were so low.

But now, interest rates are rising. As a result, some businesses are choosing not to expand. Some are even reducing their workforce in order to reduce operating costs.

Why did the interest rates rise so fast?

The cost of living increased quickly once many countries re-opened after the pandemic. Cars, food and energy prices all went higher. The war in Ukraine reduced the food and energy supply in Europe and Africa, so those costs increased for Europeans and Africans.

Many people found that the usual amount of money did not buy the usual amount of goods. That is called inflation. In some countries, the price of food and energy doubled in a short time. Home prices increased because many people decided they needed more space if they were going to do their jobs from home.

The fast inflation concerned government banks around the world. In countries such as the U.S. and areas like Europe, central banks decided to raise the interest rates they control as a way to reduce, or slow, inflation.

Central bankers believe that increasing interest rates can keep people and businesses from spending too much money. To a point, the plan has worked. In the U.S., some data shows inflation is slowing.

Economists who study the U.S. have been surprised that the economy stayed strong even as interest rates for Treasury securities have increased. People are still spending money and the employment rate is high.

But some investors are thinking that a yield of about 5 percent is better than putting money into stocks that might lose value. As a result, stocks prices have dropped since the summer.

Because U.S. Treasury securities are not a high-risk investment, the U.S. dollar has gotten stronger compared to the Euro, the British pound and the Australian dollar.

High interest rates also hurt some investors who decided to put their money in safe U.S. Treasury securities five or 10 years ago. If those investors purchased bonds paying a lower interest rate than today, they would lose money if they tried to sell those securities on the open market now.

One large investment fund that purchases U.S. debt securities with different terms has lost three percent of its value this year. If this situation continues, the fund is on track to lose value for the third year in a row.

I’m Dan Friedell. And I’m Caty Weaver.

Dan Friedell adapted this story for Learning English based on a report by the Associated Press.

Words in This Story

fund (mutual fund) –n. a kind of investment that uses the money from many different people to buy investments and which shares the risk and returns with its investors

on track –adj. happening as expected

in a row –adj. one after another

日本語訳

この英文には日本語訳があります。日本語訳はナラボー・プレスが作成しています。誤訳などありましたらご連絡ください。

【日本語訳】

Why the Interest Rate of US Treasury Notes Matters
米国債の金利が重要な理由

The U.S. government needs money to operate.
米国政府の運営には資金が必要です。

A lot of that money comes from taxes. However, much of the money the U.S. government uses to pay its costs comes from borrowing in the form of U.S. Treasury securities.
その多くは税金です。しかし、米国政府がその費用を支払うために使用する資金の多くは、米国財務省証券という形で借り入れを行っています。

Investors, who believe the U.S. government will be able to pay them back, agree to loan the government money for a period of time. They receive interest payments regularly or in a way set by the Treasury.
米国政府が返済してくれると信じている投資家は、一定期間政府にお金を貸すことに同意します。投資家は定期的に、あるいは財務省が定めた方法で利息を受け取ります。

The difference between the loan amount and the investment return is called the yield.
融資額と投資利回りの差額は利回りと呼ばれます。

In past years, the interest rate on the U.S. government 10-year note was low. For example, when the COVID-19 pandemic started, the interest rate for a 10-year government debt security was less than one percent. If you loaned the U.S. government $100, you would receive about one dollar a year in interest until the note “matures,” or is paid back.
過去数年間、米国政府10年債の金利は低水準でした。例えば、COVID-19のパンデミックが始まったとき、10年物国債の金利は1%以下でした。米国政府に100ドルを貸した場合、その債券が「満期」になるまで、つまり返済されるまで、1年に約1ドルの利息を受け取ることができたのです。

Now, however, the yield has jumped to about five percent for a 10-year note. A note is a debt security with a term of between two and 10 years. That means investors who agree to lend money to the U.S. government for a period of 10 years will earn about a five percent return each year.
しかし現在、利回りは10年債で約5パーセントに跳ね上がっています。債券とは、期間が2年から10年の負債証券のことです。つまり、米国政府に10年間お金を貸すことに同意した投資家は、毎年約5%の利益を得ることができるということです。

That sounds good for investors. But everyone is not happy about it.
投資家にとってはよい話です。しかし、誰もが喜んでいるわけではありません。

The reason is that many other interest rates are tied to the U.S. rate for the 10-year note.
他の多くの金利が米国の10年債金利に連動しているからです。

In a recent report, the Associated Press called the 10-year note “the centerpiece of the global financial system.”
AP通信は最近の報道で、10年債を「世界の金融システムの目玉」と呼びました。

Many mortgage rates, the interest rates people pay for their home loans, are connected to the 10-year note. As a result, borrowing money becomes more costly. Over the life of a 30-year home mortgage agreement, a homeowner could pay hundreds of thousands of dollars more in interest than just two or three years ago.
住宅ローンの金利の多くは、10年債に連動しています。その結果、お金を借りるコストが高くなるのです。30年の住宅ローン契約期間中、住宅所有者はほんの2、3年前より数十万ドルも高い金利を支払うことになります。

In addition, the high rates on the 10-year note make it harder for some new businesses to grow. A young business often does not make money. But if it wants to hire new people or create a new product, it will often take out a loan from a bank or agree to pay investors interest. Since the financial crisis of 2008, the cost of these loans has mainly been very low – only a little higher than zero percent interest.
さらに、10年債の金利が高いため、新規事業が成長しにくくなるケースもあります。若いビジネスは儲からないことが多い。しかし、新しい従業員を雇ったり、新しい製品を作ったりしたい場合は、銀行から融資を受けたり、投資家に利子を支払うことに同意したりすることが多いのです。2008年の金融危機以来、こうした融資のコストは主に非常に低く、金利はゼロ%を少し上回る程度でした。

The low rates permitted many companies to borrow money at a low cost. Many of the world’s economies that were struggling recovered because of the low rates. Individual investors bought stocks because they did not see a large cost to borrow money. They did not see U.S. Treasury securities as a good investment because their interest rates were so low.
低金利のおかげで、多くの企業が低コストで資金を借りることができたのです。低迷していた世界経済の多くが回復したのも、低金利のおかげです。個人投資家が株を買ったのは、お金を借りるのに大きなコストがかからないと考えたからです。米国債は低金利のため、投資対象にはなりませんでした。

But now, interest rates are rising. As a result, some businesses are choosing not to expand. Some are even reducing their workforce in order to reduce operating costs.
しかし今、金利は上昇しています。その結果、事業拡大を断念する企業も出てきています。営業コストを削減するために従業員を減らす企業もあります。

Why did the interest rates rise so fast?
なぜ金利が急上昇したのでしょうか?

The cost of living increased quickly once many countries re-opened after the pandemic. Cars, food and energy prices all went higher. The war in Ukraine reduced the food and energy supply in Europe and Africa, so those costs increased for Europeans and Africans.
パンデミック後に多くの国が再開すると、生活費が急速に上昇しました。自動車、食料品、エネルギー価格のすべてが上昇しました。ウクライナの戦争でヨーロッパとアフリカの食料とエネルギーの供給が減少したため、ヨーロッパ人とアフリカ人のコストが上昇したのです。

Many people found that the usual amount of money did not buy the usual amount of goods. That is called inflation. In some countries, the price of food and energy doubled in a short time. Home prices increased because many people decided they needed more space if they were going to do their jobs from home.
多くの人々は、通常の金額では通常の量の商品が買えないことに気づきました。これがインフレです。食料とエネルギーの価格が短期間で2倍になった国もあります。多くの人々が、自宅で仕事をするならもっと広い場所が必要だと考えたため、住宅価格が上昇しました。

The fast inflation concerned government banks around the world. In countries such as the U.S. and areas like Europe, central banks decided to raise the interest rates they control as a way to reduce, or slow, inflation.
急速なインフレは、世界中の政府系銀行を悩ませました。アメリカのような国やヨーロッパのような地域では、中央銀行がインフレを抑える、あるいは遅らせる方法として、自分たちがコントロールする金利を引き上げることを決定しました。

Central bankers believe that increasing interest rates can keep people and businesses from spending too much money. To a point, the plan has worked. In the U.S., some data shows inflation is slowing.
中央銀行は、金利を上げることで人々や企業がお金を使いすぎないようにできると考えています。この計画はある程度成功しています。米国では、インフレが減速しているというデータもあります。

Economists who study the U.S. have been surprised that the economy stayed strong even as interest rates for Treasury securities have increased. People are still spending money and the employment rate is high.
米国を研究するエコノミストたちは、国債金利が上昇しても経済が好調を維持していることに驚いています。人々は依然としてお金を使い、雇用率は高い状態です。

But some investors are thinking that a yield of about 5 percent is better than putting money into stocks that might lose value. As a result, stocks prices have dropped since the summer.
しかし投資家の中には、価値が下がるかもしれない株式に資金を投入するよりも、5%程度の利回りの方が良いと考える人もいます。その結果、株価は夏以降下落しています。

Because U.S. Treasury securities are not a high-risk investment, the U.S. dollar has gotten stronger compared to the Euro, the British pound and the Australian dollar.
米国債はリスクの高い投資対象ではないため、米ドルはユーロ、英ポンド、豪ドルに比べて高くなっています。

High interest rates also hurt some investors who decided to put their money in safe U.S. Treasury securities five or 10 years ago. If those investors purchased bonds paying a lower interest rate than today, they would lose money if they tried to sell those securities on the open market now.
高金利は、5年前や10年前に安全な米国債に資金を預けようと決めた一部の投資家にも打撃を与えました。そのような投資家が現在より低い金利の債券を購入した場合、その証券を今公開市場で売ろうとすれば損をすることになります。

One large investment fund that purchases U.S. debt securities with different terms has lost three percent of its value this year. If this situation continues, the fund is on track to lose value for the third year in a row.
条件の異なる米国債を購入するある大型投資ファンドは、今年に入ってからその価値の3%を失いました。この状況が続けば、このファンドは3年連続で価値を失うことになります。

I’m Dan Friedell. And I’m Caty Weaver.
私はダン・フリーデル。そしてキャティー・ウィーバーです。

Dan Friedell adapted this story for Learning English based on a report by the Associated Press.
ダン・フリーデルはAP通信の報道をもとに、この記事をLearning English用に脚色しました。

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